Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson homered to right center (382 feet), Steer scored.5–3
- 7Langford doubled to right, Nimmo scored.3–3
- 6De La Cruz homered to left center (385 feet).3–2
- 2Jansen doubled to left, Carter scored and Jung scored.2–2
- 2Steer homered to left center (399 feet), Suárez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML CIN +137 / TEX -166
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.1%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -148
- CIN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −18 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 151211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–4 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.