Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seager homered to right center (422 feet).3–8
- 6Beavers homered to right center (401 feet).2–8
- 5Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Beavers scored, Taveras to third.2–7
- 5Jackson singled to right, Mayo scored, Taveras to second, Beavers to third.2–6
- 5Basallo homered to center (437 feet).2–5
- 4Duran singled to center, Jansen scored, Duran to second, Jung to third.2–4
- 4Jung singled to right, McCutchen scored, Jansen to second.1–4
- 3Taveras doubled to right, Alonso scored and Beavers scored, Cowser to third.0–4
- 2Ward doubled to right, Taveras scored.0–2
- 2Jackson hit sacrifice fly to center, Cowser scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML TEX -102 / BAL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BAL -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +11 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −1.223rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 174–1 | Road vs home | 2–313th of 17 |
| 9th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148824th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–1–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–1–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–10 BAL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.