Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 1Stewart singled to right, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1De La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 56%
- ML CIN +119 / TEX -143
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +19 Elo | TEX 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.616th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150912th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3–1 | 4–1–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3–1 | 4–1–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–4 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.