Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Rice scored and Bellinger scored.7–6
- 8Edwards singled to center, Conine scored and Pauley scored.7–4
- 8Pauley doubled to right, Marsee scored and Lopez scored, Conine to third.5–4
- 6Marsee scored on error, Hernández safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Caballero, Lopez safe at third on error.3–4
- 4Edwards doubled to right, Norby scored.2–4
- 3Rice grounded into fielder's choice to first, Judge scored on error, Bellinger safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Norby, Rice second, Bellinger safe at third on error.1–4
- 1Rice homered to right (410 feet), Grisham scored and Judge scored.1–3
- 1Lopez singled to center, Slater scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 73%
- ML MIA +251 / NYY -317
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.1%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- NYY -267
- MIA +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 5.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +11 | MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +93 Elo | NYY 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 1.92nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +3.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 29th of 301455 | Opponent Elo | 150219th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 15502nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–6 | 8–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 8–0 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 6–0 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.