New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone singled to right, Arozarena scored.5–3
- 9Rice homered to right center (427 feet).5–2
- 8Raleigh singled to right, Canzone scored and Young scored, Donovan to third.4–2
- 6Goldschmidt homered to left center (406 feet), Grisham scored and Rice scored.4–0
- 1Rice doubled to right, Bellinger scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML NYY +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.4 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 300.6 | Runs allowed | 3.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.2 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 174–1 | Road vs home | 3–311th of 17 |
| 13th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301545 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–0 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 0–4–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–4–1 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 14–7 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.