Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Raley homered to center (411 feet), Arozarena scored.6–5
- 10DeLauter homered to left (365 feet), Kwan scored.6–3
- 10Kwan reached on bunt single to third, Rocchio scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Donovan.4–3
- 9Rodríguez singled to center, Young scored.3–3
- 7Kwan singled to left, Kayfus scored, Kwan to second, Rocchio to third.3–2
- 6Manzardo singled to right, Ramírez scored.2–2
- 6Ramírez doubled to right, Rocchio scored, Ramírez to third.1–2
- 4Rivas walked, Arozarena scored on Cantillo wild pitch, Donovan to second.0–2
- 2Robles doubled to left, Donovan scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML CLE +158 / SEA -193
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -170
- CLE +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.9 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +40 Elo | SEA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 29th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 77–97 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–49 | 37–71 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 75–90 | 97–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–10 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.