Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raley homered to right (390 feet), Arozarena scored.1–5
- 4Young homered to right center (367 feet), Arozarena scored and Canzone scored.1–3
- 1DeLauter homered to right center (360 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML CLE +144 / SEA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -155
- CLE +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −3 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 51–307th of 30 |
| 29th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 77–97 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–49 | 37–71 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 75–90 | 97–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 11–9 SEA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.