New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cole YoungBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh singled to right, Rivas scored, Donovan to second.1–2
- 7Rosario hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.1–1
- 2Young singled to right, Arozarena scored, Garver to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -117 / SEA -103
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.1%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- NYY -106
- SEA +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +13 Elo | SEA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 300.3 | Runs allowed | 3.36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+4.0 | Margin | +2.36th of 30 |
| 1st of 163–0 | Road vs home | 2–210th of 16 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–90 | 77–97 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 67–79 | 37–71 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 81–88 | 97–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 13–6 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.