New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Judge homered to left (383 feet).3–1
- 3Chapman singled to center, Lee scored.2–1
- 3Rice doubled to right, Bellinger scored and Grisham scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -136 / SF +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- SF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +11 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +6 Elo | SF 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 42–3920th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYY |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–90 | 72–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 67–79 | 29–62 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 43–28 |
| Overs–unders | 81–88 | 79–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–3 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.