New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting1-3
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rice scored on throwing error by shortstop Adames, Stanton out at second.7–0
- 5Stanton singled to center, Bellinger scored, Rice to second.6–0
- 2Grisham tripled to right, McMahon scored and Wells scored.5–0
- 2McMahon singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored and Caballero scored.3–0
- 2Caballero singled to left, Stanton scored, Caballero to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -126 / SF +104
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–37 | Road vs home | 42–3920th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 4th of 301549 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYY |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–90 | 72–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 67–79 | 29–62 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 43–28 |
| Overs–unders | 81–88 | 79–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–3 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.