Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4
- McCade BrownPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee singled to right, McCray scored and Devers scored, Lee to second.0–4
- 4Devers homered to center (416 feet).0–2
- 1Adames homered to center (417 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SF 73%
- ML COL +250 / SF -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SF: Elo 68.5%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1367 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −3 | COL: McCade Brown: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +135 Elo | SF 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 72.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–62 | Road vs home | 41–3920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 30th of 301367 | Elo rating | 150119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–85 | 71–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 28–62 |
| Underdog | 73–81 | 43–28 |
| Overs–unders | 75–86 | 79–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–29 SF in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 38.