Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting1-3
- Slade CecconiPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Brendan DonovanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Naylor to second.0–8
- 6Raleigh hit a ground rule double, Donovan scored.0–7
- 5Raley singled to right, Arozarena scored.0–6
- 5Arozarena doubled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–5
- 4Donovan homered to right (340 feet), Young scored and Rivas scored.0–4
- 4Rivas singled to right, Canzone scored, Young to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML CLE +123 / SEA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- CLE +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −17 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +25 Elo | SEA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–211th of 15 |
| 8th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 151112th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 77–97 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–49 | 37–71 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 75–90 | 97–77 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–10 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.