Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-4
- Shane SmithPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez homered to left (392 feet).0–10
- 6Hicks singled to right, Lopez scored.0–9
- 3Sanoja singled to left, Hernández scored and Pauley scored, Sanoja thrown out at second.0–8
- 2Hicks homered to right (347 feet), Edwards scored.0–6
- 1Caissie singled to left, Hicks scored and Norby scored.0–4
- 1Norby doubled to right, Lopez scored, Hicks to third.0–2
- 1Hicks singled to center, Marsee scored, Lopez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML CHW +123 / MIA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 60.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +73 Elo | MIA 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.4 | Runs allowed | 3.69th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.2 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 17 |
| 5th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 141930th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–6 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.