Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caissie singled to center, Lopez scored.3–4
- 5Hicks homered to right (384 feet), Ramírez scored.3–3
- 4Tovar homered to left center (401 feet), Castro scored.3–1
- 3Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to third.1–1
- 2Rumfield homered to right center (423 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 64%
- ML COL +163 / MIA -199
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 60.9%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +25 | −3 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +77 Elo | MIA 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3018–63 | Road vs home | 38–4325th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 30th of 301398 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–86 | 91–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 73–82 | 81–46 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 81–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 10–11 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.