Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conine homered to right center (405 feet), Lopez scored.2–9
- 8Caissie hit sacrifice fly to left, Hicks scored, Lopez to second.2–7
- 7Marsee hit sacrifice fly to right, Conine scored.2–6
- 7Pauley hit sacrifice bunt, Hernández scored on error, Conine to second, Conine safe at third on fielding error by catcher Quero.2–5
- 4Hernández singled to center, Caissie scored on error, Hernández safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Acuña.2–4
- 4Caissie singled to center, Hicks scored on error, Caissie safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Acuña.2–3
- 4Hicks doubled to right, Edwards scored and Ramírez scored.2–2
- 3Benintendi singled to right, Acuña scored, Murakami to second.2–0
- 3Murakami singled to center, Quero scored, Acuña to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML CHW +129 / MIA -156
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.3 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 17 |
| 4th of 301531 | Opponent Elo | 141330th of 30 |
| 29th of 301448 | Elo rating | 148322nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–67 | 91–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 93–60 | 81–46 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 81–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–5 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.