Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hicks singled to left, Marsee scored.9–4
- 6Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña scored.9–3
- 5Marsee singled to right, Conine scored.8–3
- 4Hicks homered to right (371 feet), Edwards scored.8–2
- 4Vargas homered to left (402 feet), Peters, Pereira and Acuña scored.8–0
- 3Hays homered to right (353 feet), Vargas and Murakami scored.4–0
- 3Vargas singled to left, Pereira scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML CHW +123 / MIA -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 59.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.319th of 30 |
| 30th of 309.7 | Runs allowed | 2.33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +1.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 150–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 16 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Opponent Elo | 139730th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHW |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 95–67 | 91–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 93–60 | 81–46 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 81–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–5 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.