Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice doubled to center, Bellinger scored and Judge scored.2–8
- 7Rice homered to right (353 feet).2–6
- 6Wells scored on Phillips wild pitch, Judge to second on wild pitch by Phillips, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Phillips.2–5
- 6Wells scored on Phillips wild pitch, Judge to second on wild pitch by Phillips, Caballero to third on wild pitch by Phillips.2–5
- 5Caissie homered to right center (379 feet).2–4
- 2Judge hit by pitch, Caballero scored, Grisham to second, McMahon to third.1–4
- 2Grisham walked, Chisholm Jr. scored, McMahon to second, Caballero to third.1–3
- 1Judge homered to left (387 feet), Grisham scored.1–2
- 1Edwards homered to right center (377 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML MIA +139 / NYY -168
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -150
- MIA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +64 Elo | NYY 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 1.01st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301422 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 6–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 6–0 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | — | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 1–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 1–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–3 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.