Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edwards singled to left, Lopez scored, Hicks to second.7–9
- 8Rice scored on a passed ball by Ramírez, Stanton to second on passed ball by Ramírez.6–9
- 8Rice scored on a passed ball by Ramírez, Stanton to second on passed ball by Ramírez.6–9
- 8Stanton singled to center, Judge scored and McMahon scored, Rice to third.6–8
- 8Sanoja doubled to left, Edwards scored and Hicks scored.6–6
- 7Stanton scored on a passed ball by Ramírez.4–6
- 7Stanton scored on a passed ball by Ramírez.4–6
- 6Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored, Judge to second.4–5
- 6Judge singled to right, Caballero scored, Grisham to third.4–4
- 6Grisham singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Caballero to second.4–3
- 5Bellinger homered to right center (394 feet), Judge scored.4–2
- 4Marsee singled to left, Ramírez scored on throwing error by left fielder Bellinger, Marsee to third.4–0
- 2Ramírez singled to center, Edwards scored, Slater to second.3–0
- 1Hernández tripled to center, Ramírez scored and Lopez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 64%
- ML MIA +164 / NYY -201
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.9%, market 63.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -176
- MIA +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +77 Elo | NYY 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 63.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 1.11st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +3.43rd of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 29th of 301441 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 7–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 7–0 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–4 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.