Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Norby homered to left (372 feet).4–7
- 5Stewart homered to left (381 feet), McLain scored.4–6
- 3Conine homered to right center (403 feet), Hicks scored.2–6
- 2Edwards singled to left, Marsee scored.2–4
- 2Marsee singled to right, Conine scored.2–3
- 1Hicks singled to right, Ramírez scored.2–2
- 1Ramírez doubled to left, Edwards scored.2–1
- 1Suárez doubled to right, Stewart scored.2–0
- 1De La Cruz scored on error, Stewart safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Pauley.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML CIN +109 / MIA -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.0%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 147627th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–3 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6–1 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 13–9 MIA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.