Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching8.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Pauley grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Marsee scored, Lopez out at second.6–3
- 10De La Cruz grounded out to third, Friedl scored, McLain to third.6–2
- 10McLain doubled to left, Stephenson scored and Myers scored, Friedl to third.5–2
- 10Lowe singled to center, Steer scored, Stephenson to second.3–2
- 9De La Cruz scored on Bender wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bender.2–2
- 9De La Cruz scored on Bender wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Bender.2–2
- 9Stewart hit sacrifice fly to right, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.1–2
- 4Hernández grounded out to third, Marsee scored.0–2
- 4Lopez grounded out to second, Ramírez scored, Marsee to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML CIN +119 / MIA -144
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.6%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -129
- CIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 5–26th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 147028th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 148423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–9 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.