Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee singled to right, Caratini scored and Wallner scored, Lewis to third.1–3
- 7Torres hit sacrifice fly to right, Rogers scored.1–1
- 4Bell homered to right center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML DET -143 / MIN +119
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- DET: Elo 47.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Mick Abel: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +16 Elo | MIN 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5–1 | 5–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 22–20 MIN in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 42.