Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4
- Chris PaddackPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Báez homered to left (354 feet).0–2
- 2Torkelson singled to left, Dingler scored, Carpenter to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MIA +109 / DET -131
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- DET: Elo 55.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 30 |
| 26th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 149617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–3 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.