Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-4
- Sonny GrayPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Mick AbelPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Buxton homered to left center (438 feet).0–6
- 4Larnach singled to right, Gray scored and Buxton scored, Larnach out stretching at second.0–5
- 4Lee homered to right (371 feet).0–3
- 3Buxton homered to left (401 feet).0–2
- 1Keaschall singled to center, Buxton scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML BOS -143 / MIN +119
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- MIN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 3.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +10 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Mick Abel: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 148424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–11 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–10 MIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.