Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Tristan GrayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching2.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Clement scored.8–2
- 3Lee doubled to left, Bell scored and Wallner scored, Gray to third.8–1
- 3Caratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Keaschall scored, Bell to third.6–1
- 3Wallner singled to right, Larnach scored, Bell to second, Keaschall to third.5–1
- 3Clemens homered to right center (417 feet).4–1
- 2Gray homered to right (396 feet), Bell scored and Wallner scored.3–1
- 1Varsho singled to right, Clement scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML MIN +113 / TOR -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.8%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −23 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +40 Elo | TOR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–519th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 147628th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–6 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–10 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.