Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Dalton RushingBatting4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-4
- Josh FlemingPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Giménez grounded out to third, Varsho scored, Heineman to second, Straw to third.14–2
- 8Rushing homered to right center (413 feet).14–1
- 7T. Hernández singled to right, Tucker and Freeman scored.13–1
- 7Freeman doubled to right, Kim scored, Tucker to third.11–1
- 7Rushing homered to right center (415 feet).10–1
- 6Pages doubled to right, T. Hernández scored and Tucker scored.9–1
- 6Ohtani homered to center (414 feet).7–1
- 5Freeland grounded into double play, second to first, Muncy scored, Pages out at second.6–1
- 4Tucker hit sacrifice fly to center, Rushing scored, Kim to third.5–1
- 3Freeman homered to right center (438 feet), Ohtani scored.4–1
- 1Clement singled to right, Springer scored, Okamoto to second.2–1
- 1T. Hernández homered to left (371 feet), Tucker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -126 / TOR +104
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 47.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −44 | −12 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 2.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 144330th of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–7 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Nov 1LAD 5 @ TOR 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 31LAD 3 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 29TOR 6 @ LAD 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Miss
- Oct 28TOR 6 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Miss
- Oct 27TOR 5 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Oct 25LAD 5 @ TOR 1PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 24LAD 4 @ TOR 11PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Aug 10TOR 5 @ LAD 4Picked LAD 62%Miss