Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Freeman singled to center, Doyle scored.2–1
- 8Johnston singled to left, McCarthy scored.1–1
- 3Schneider singled to right, Straw scored, Schneider to second, Springer to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 70%
- ML COL +224 / TOR -280
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 70.9%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -239
- COL +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +155 Elo | TOR 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 70.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.27th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.224th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 17 |
| 15th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 144729th of 30 |
| 30th of 301401 | Elo rating | 15334th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–8 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.