Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clement doubled to left, Lukes scored.1–5
- 7Lukes singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Okamoto thrown out at third.1–4
- 7Okamoto singled to left, Straw scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–3
- 6Goodman homered to left center (435 feet).1–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. walked, Heineman scored, Sánchez to second, Springer to third.0–2
- 5Sánchez singled to center, Varsho scored, Springer to second, Heineman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 70%
- ML COL +218 / TOR -271
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 67.5%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -232
- COL +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −17 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +127 Elo | TOR 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 6.328th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.020th of 30 |
| 12th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 3–14th of 17 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 145927th of 30 |
| 30th of 301402 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–86 | 100–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 73–82 | 54–27 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 102–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–7 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.