Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 11Clement singled to left, Lukes scored, Varsho to second.7–8
- 10Barger hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored.7–7
- 10Rooker singled to right, Kurtz scored.7–6
- 9Kirk homered to left (394 feet).6–6
- 8Giménez singled to center, Varsho scored, Sánchez to second.6–5
- 8Sánchez reached on infield single to third, Kirk scored, Varsho to second.6–4
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Sánchez scored, Barger to second.6–3
- 7Langeliers homered to center (420 feet), Muncy scored, Clarke scored and Kurtz scored.6–2
- 7Clarke reached on infield single to pitcher, McNeil scored, Muncy to third.2–2
- 6Varsho singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to second.1–2
- 6Soderstrom doubled to left, Kurtz scored.1–1
- 3Springer doubled to left, Straw scored, Giménez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML ATH +163 / TOR -199
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.9%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- ATH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.4 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +77 Elo | TOR 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–72 | 100–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 71–48 | 54–27 |
| Overs–unders | 82–80 | 102–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–13 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.