Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Barger walked, Heineman scored, Guerrero Jr. to second, Sánchez to third.2–5
- 5Muncy homered to right (362 feet), Wilson scored.2–4
- 4Okamoto homered to right center (420 feet).0–4
- 3Sánchez homered to center (417 feet), Heineman scored.0–3
- 1Springer homered to left (362 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML ATH +129 / TOR -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +6 | ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +65 Elo | TOR 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 54–272nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 90–72 | 100–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 71–48 | 54–27 |
| Overs–unders | 82–80 | 102–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–14 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.