Colorado Rockies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody PoncePitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Okamoto homered to center (399 feet).14–5
- 9Fulford homered to left center (376 feet).14–4
- 8Schneider homered to left (366 feet), Sánchez scored.13–4
- 8Giménez homered to center (406 feet).13–2
- 8Rumfield singled to right, Ritter and Tovar scored.13–1
- 8Tovar doubled to center, Goodman scored, Ritter to third.11–1
- 8Goodman doubled to left, Doyle scored.10–1
- 6Tovar doubled to center, Castro and Goodman scored.9–1
- 6Castro doubled to right, Fulford and Doyle scored, Goodman to third.7–1
- 6Fulford singled to center, Beck scored.5–1
- 6Johnston homered to right (423 feet), Rumfield scored.4–1
- 4Tovar scored on error, Beck safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Clement.2–1
- 3Springer homered to left center (416 feet).1–1
- 3Karros scored on error, McCarthy safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Ponce.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 71%
- ML COL +234 / TOR -293
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 70.0%, market 71.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Cody Ponce (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +147 Elo | TOR 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 69.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 71.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 5.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.713th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.710th of 30 |
| 13th of 150–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 16 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 148025th of 30 |
| 30th of 301397 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  COL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–86 | 100–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 45–53 |
| Underdog | 73–82 | 54–27 |
| Overs–unders | 75–87 | 102–78 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–7 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.