Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tena singled to right, Vivas scored.10–5
- 8Abrams homered to right (361 feet), García Jr. scored.10–4
- 7Tucker singled to right, Call scored.10–2
- 5Pages homered to left center (387 feet), Smith scored and Muncy scored.9–2
- 4Mead doubled to left, Abrams scored.6–2
- 3García Jr. tripled to right, Young scored.6–1
- 3Call singled to left, Pages scored.6–0
- 2Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored and Tucker scored.5–0
- 2Rojas hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeland scored, Ohtani to third.3–0
- 1Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored and Tucker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML LAD -314 / WSH +248
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.4%, market 72.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -264
- WSH +264 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +95 Elo | LAD 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.928th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301555 | Elo rating | 145327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4–1 | 5–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4–1 | 5–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–7 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.