Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Crawford singled to right, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second.5–6
- 9Sosa singled to left, Moore scored and Turner scored, Bohm to second, Sosa to second, Bohm safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Wood.5–5
- 8Harper homered to right center (425 feet).5–3
- 7Realmuto homered to center (401 feet).5–2
- 7Abrams homered to right center (391 feet), Lile scored and Wiemer scored.5–1
- 6Millas singled to center, Young scored.2–1
- 2Millas struck out swinging, Wiemer scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber doubled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber out stretching at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 71%
- ML WSH +228 / PHI -285
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.9%, market 70.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -243
- WSH +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +99 Elo | PHI 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.2 | Margin | −2.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 2–314th of 17 |
| 4th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–1–1 | 3–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–1–1 | 3–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 16–25 PHI in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.