Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9House homered to right (367 feet), García Jr. scored.10–4
- 7Crow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to third, Busch scored, Bregman to second.8–4
- 6Nuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- 6Nuñez scored on Brown wild pitch.8–3
- 4Swanson grounded out to second, Hoerner scored, Kelly to third.7–3
- 4Young homered to right (380 feet), Ruiz scored.7–2
- 4Nuñez grounded out to shortstop, Wiemer scored.5–2
- 4Abrams singled to right, House scored and Lile scored, Abrams thrown out at second, Wiemer to third.4–2
- 4Lile singled to right, Chaparro scored, House to third.2–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Busch scored, Bregman thrown out at third.1–2
- 3Busch singled to left, Swanson scored.1–1
- 2Wiemer homered to left (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML WSH +169 / CHC -207
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +100 Elo | CHC 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–47 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–85 | 80–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–24 | 52–61 |
| Underdog | 73–61 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders | 86–76 | 84–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–12 CHC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.