Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kelly walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Swanson to second, Hoerner to third.2–10
- 6Happ homered to left center, Shaw scored and Busch scored.2–9
- 5Hoerner doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–6
- 5Nuñez singled to center, House scored.2–5
- 4Amaya homered to left center (390 feet).1–5
- 4Wood homered to left center (364 feet).1–4
- 2Ballesteros scored on error and Amaya scored on error, Busch safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez, Busch safe at second on error.0–4
- 2Amaya reached on infield single to first, Swanson scored, Ballesteros to third.0–2
- 2Shaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 68%
- ML WSH +203 / CHC -252
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.8%, market 68.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -217
- WSH +217 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +1 | WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +91 Elo | CHC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 68.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–47 | Road vs home | 50–296th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–85 | 80–90 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–24 | 52–61 |
| Underdog | 73–61 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders | 86–76 | 84–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–12 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.