Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-4
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Adolis GarciaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wood doubled to first, Nuñez scored.2–3
- 6Lile singled to right, Abrams scored on throwing error by right fielder García, Lile to second.1–3
- 5Crawford scored, Harper safe at first on fielding error by first baseman García Jr., Schwarber to second, Turner to third.0–3
- 4García homered to right (349 feet).0–2
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML WSH +163 / PHI -199
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.6%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- WSH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | WSH: PJ Poulin (no track record yet) · PHI: Andrew Painter (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.8 | Runs scored | 3.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 7.329th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.0 | Margin | −3.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–1 | Road vs home | 1–315th of 17 |
| 5th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–85 | 86–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–24 | 60–69 |
| Underdog | 73–61 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 86–76 | 78–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 16–24 PHI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.