Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-6, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Rafael MarchanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lile grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wood scored, House out at second, García Jr. to third.13–2
- 9García Jr. singled to right, Vivas and Wiemer scored, Wood to second.12–2
- 9Wood walked, Tena scored, Wiemer to second, Vivas to third.10–2
- 6Tena scored, Vivas caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.9–2
- 6Tena scored, Vivas caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.9–2
- 6Tena singled to right, Lile scored.8–2
- 5Marchán homered to left center (378 feet), Marsh scored.7–2
- 3House grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wiemer scored, García Jr. out at second.7–0
- 3García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vivas scored, Wood out at second, Wiemer to third.6–0
- 2Millas grounded into fielder's choice to first, House scored, Abrams to second, Lile to third.5–0
- 1Vivas hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.4–0
- 1Tena singled to center, Lile scored, Millas to second, Abrams to third.3–0
- 1Abrams singled to left, García Jr. scored, Lile to second.2–0
- 1Lile grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wood scored, García Jr. third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML WSH +146 / PHI -177
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.2%, market 61.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -157
- WSH +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | WSH: Foster Griffin (no track record yet) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +86 Elo | PHI 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–213th of 16 |
| 6th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 151310th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–85 | 86–80 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–24 | 60–69 |
| Underdog | 73–61 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 86–76 | 78–88 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 15–24 PHI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.