Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman homered to center (407 feet).4–1
- 8Ramírez homered to left (376 feet), Martínez scored.4–0
- 3Arias homered to center (407 feet).2–0
- 3Schneemann scored on throwing error by catcher Smith.1–0
- 3Schneemann scored on throwing error by catcher Smith.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML CLE +244 / LAD -308
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -260
- CLE +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–3 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 17 |
| 1st of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 150814th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15551st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 1–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 1–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–7 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.