Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio singled to right, Manzardo scored, Hoskins to second.1–4
- 8Pages singled to left, Muncy scored, T. Hernández to second.0–4
- 8T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored, Muncy to third.0–3
- 6Muncy homered to right (410 feet).0–2
- 4Pages singled to right, Smith scored, T. Hernández to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML CLE +229 / LAD -286
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.9%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- CLE +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +48 Elo | LAD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.57th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 17 |
| 3rd of 301530 | Opponent Elo | 150714th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15531st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 79–100 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–49 | 61–91 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 75–90 | 89–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.