Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman grounded out to first, Betts scored.4–2
- 9Betts doubled to left, Tucker scored.4–1
- 7Schneemann doubled to center, Martínez scored and Kwan scored, Hoskins to third.4–0
- 7Hoskins walked, Hedges scored, Kwan to second, Martínez to third.2–0
- 3Kwan doubled to right, Hedges scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML CLE +163 / LAD -199
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.7%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- CLE +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −29 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +25 Elo | LAD 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.39th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 2.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +2.75th of 30 |
| 7th of 172–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 16 |
| 6th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 150217th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15551st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 79–100 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–49 | 61–91 |
| Underdog | 56–31 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 75–90 | 89–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–6 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.