Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.1 IP, 11 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to center, Call scored, Pages to third.13–6
- 8Young grounded out to third, Vivas scored.12–6
- 8Ruiz doubled to right, Nuñez scored, Vivas to third.12–5
- 7Tucker homered to right center (404 feet).12–4
- 5Tucker singled to right, T. Hernández scored, Freeland to second, Pages to third.11–4
- 5T. Hernández doubled to center, Muncy scored.10–4
- 5Freeman homered to right (391 feet), Betts scored.9–4
- 4Pages homered to left (412 feet), T. Hernández scored.7–4
- 3Abrams reached on infield single to second, Lile scored.5–4
- 3Betts homered to left center (380 feet), Tucker scored.5–3
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (401 feet), T. Hernández scored and Pages scored.3–3
- 1Abrams homered to right (387 feet), Wood scored and House scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML LAD -293 / WSH +234
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.3%, market 71.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -249
- WSH +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +87 Elo | LAD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 6.33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15293rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301553 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4–1 | 4–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4–1 | 4–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–7 WSH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.