Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández homered to center (414 feet).8–6
- 8Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Espinal scored.7–6
- 8Tucker grounded into fielder's choice to first, Call scored, Smith out at second, Espinal to third.6–6
- 8Espinal singled to center, Freeman scored and Pages scored, Call to second.5–6
- 6Rushing homered to right center (375 feet), Call scored.3–6
- 4Wood homered to center (416 feet), Ruiz scored and Tena scored.1–6
- 4Ruiz reached on infield single to second, Abrams scored.1–3
- 3García Jr. homered to center (405 feet), Wood scored.1–2
- 3Ohtani homered to center (438 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -181 / WSH +149
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -160
- WSH +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +14 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +50 Elo | LAD 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 6.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 6.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15371st of 30 |
| 1st of 301557 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | — | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4–1 | 6–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4–1 | 6–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 13–7 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.