Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Austin HaysBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Peters singled to right, Hill scored.4–5
- 10Hill reached on bunt single to catcher, Vargas scored on error, Hill safe at second on throwing error by catcher Heineman.4–4
- 10Schneider scored on error, Springer safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Vargas.4–3
- 8Giménez homered to right (361 feet), Clement scored.3–3
- 3Hays singled to left, Vargas scored and Montgomery scored.1–3
- 2Kirk doubled to left, Barger scored.1–1
- 1Meidroth scored on error, Vargas safe at first on error by pitcher Cease, Murakami to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -199 / CHW +163
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.5%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 3.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Grant Taylor: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +67 Elo | TOR 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 8.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −5.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 301440 | Opponent Elo | 15187th of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Elo rating | 144329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | — | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 14–4 CHW in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.