Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4
- Austin VothPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Austin HaysBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Hays singled to right, Acuña scored, Hays to second.0–3
- 3Sosa doubled to left, Murakami scored.0–2
- 1Vargas tripled to left, Meidroth scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML TOR -163 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -146
- CHW +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +70 Elo | TOR 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 7.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 30th of 301440 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 144629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | — |
| Underdog | — | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 14–6 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.