Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lazaro EstradaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Acuña reached on infield single to second, Vargas scored and Hays scored on throwing error by catcher Heineman, Acuña out stretching at third.3–6
- 7Lukes sacrificed into double play, right to first to third, Straw scored, Heineman thrown out at third.3–4
- 6Montgomery homered to right (348 feet).2–4
- 6Murakami homered to center (431 feet), Vargas scored.2–3
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (437 feet), Schneider scored.2–1
- 1Murakami hit sacrifice fly to center, Sosa scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -149 / CHW +123
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | TOR: Mason Fluharty (no track record yet) · CHW: Grant Taylor: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 8.030th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −4.330th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 29th of 301441 | Opponent Elo | 15206th of 30 |
| 5th of 301531 | Elo rating | 144429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 14–5 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.