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Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Sportsnet

Away

Dodgers

9-3

3–4

at

Home

Blue Jays

5-7

LAD 59%TOR 41%

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Rogers Centre · MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Sportsnet

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%LADStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Will SmithBatting2-3, 1 RBI
  • Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays
  • George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
  • Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Schneider scored on throwing error by catcher Smith, Giménez stole second.3–4
  • 8Schneider scored on throwing error by catcher Smith, Giménez stole second.3–4
  • 7Varsho singled to center, Straw scored, Springer to third.3–3
  • 7Springer doubled to right, Schneider scored, Straw to third.3–2
  • 7Smith singled to center, Rojas scored, Smith to second, Tucker to third.3–1
  • 6T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.2–1
  • 4Freeman singled to center, Smith scored.1–1
  • 3Sánchez doubled to left, Varsho scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 59%

LeanMiss
LAD 59%TOR 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 59%
ML LAD -163 / TOR +135
Pre-line forecast
LAD 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 53%
Ratings vs. market
−5.8 pts
LAD: Elo 53.5%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
LAD -146
TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 4.2 – 3.3 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADTORWhy
Team rating15641520Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0+3LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +24 EloLAD 53.5%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 54.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatTOR
1st of 306.5Runs scored3.427th of 30
8th of 303.4Runs allowed5.524th of 30
1st of 30+3.2Margin−2.129th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 103–725th of 30
1st of 305–0Road vs home4–417th of 30
20th of 301495Opponent Elo146529th of 30
1st of 301564Elo rating15207th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADTOR
Run line7–42–9
Last 106–42–8
Favorite7–42–7
Underdog—0–2
Overs–unders5–5–15–6
Overs–unders, last 104–5–15–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 11–7 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.