Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
MLB games
Updated

Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, TBS, SportsNet LA, Sportsnet, TVA

Away

Dodgers

9-2

4–1

at

Home

Blue Jays

4-7

LAD 58%TOR 42%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Centre · MLB.TV, TBS, SportsNet LA, Sportsnet, TVA

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%LADStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Alex FreelandBatting3-3, 1 RBI
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays
  • George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
  • Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Tucker singled to right, Freeland scored, Ohtani to second.4–1
  • 6Springer doubled to right, Giménez scored.3–1
  • 5Freeland singled to right, Kim scored.3–0
  • 3Smith grounded into fielder's choice to third, Freeland scored, Ohtani out at second.2–0
  • 3Ohtani singled to right, Kim scored, Freeland to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 58%

LeanHit
LAD 58%TOR 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 58%
ML LAD -156 / TOR +129
Pre-line forecast
LAD 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 54%
Ratings vs. market
−4.7 pts
LAD: Elo 53.5%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
LAD -140
TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 4.1 – 3.4 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADTORWhy
Team rating15621521Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13+12LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +24 EloLAD 53.5%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 58.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 57.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatTOR
2nd of 306.8Runs scored3.622nd of 30
7th of 303.6Runs allowed5.625th of 30
1st of 30+3.2Margin−2.028th of 30
1st of 304–0Road vs home4–316th of 30
22nd of 301492Opponent Elo145530th of 30
1st of 301562Elo rating15216th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersBlue Jays
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADTOR
Run line6–42–8
Last 106–42–8
Favorite6–42–7
Underdog—0–1
Overs–unders5–4–15–5
Overs–unders, last 105–4–15–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 10–7 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.