Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Brandon ValenzuelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Valenzuela scored.4–10
- 7Schneider singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–9
- 6Springer doubled to left, Clement scored.4–8
- 6Clement doubled to left, Schneider scored.4–7
- 5Varsho homered to right center (405 feet).4–6
- 4Valenzuela homered to right (383 feet), Giménez scored.4–5
- 4Giménez singled to left, Schneider scored.4–3
- 4Schneider doubled to right, Sánchez scored.4–2
- 4Sánchez doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.4–1
- 4Lee homered to left (382 feet).4–0
- 1Jeffers homered to left center (419 feet), Martin scored and Keaschall scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML MIN +129 / TOR -156
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −10 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +40 Elo | TOR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 3–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7–1 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–9 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.