Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sánchez homered to right center (406 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.7–4
- 3Larnach homered to right (398 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.7–2
- 3Bell singled to center, Keaschall scored and Martin scored, Jeffers to second.4–2
- 3Jeffers walked, Buxton scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.2–2
- 3Lee homered to left (349 feet).1–2
- 1Varsho homered to right center (382 feet), Springer scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML MIN +105 / TOR -126
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.3%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- MIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +80 Elo | TOR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–414th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–10 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.