Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Fermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.2–3
- 5Saggese singled to left, Walker scored, Urías to second.2–2
- 4Story stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1
- 4Story stole home, Mayer stole second.2–1
- 4Story grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yoshida scored on error, Abreu out at second, Story safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Wetherholt.1–1
- 2Scott II hit sacrifice fly to left, Urías scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -136 / STL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −23 | BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 1.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +46 Elo | BOS 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
| 6th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 148823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–9 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–5 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.