St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ramon UriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams homered to right (366 feet).6–9
- 8House homered to center (423 feet), Mead scored.6–8
- 8Wood homered to center (409 feet), Millas scored and Wiemer scored.6–6
- 8Scott II hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Urías scored, Saggese to second.6–3
- 8Urías doubled to center, Winn scored.5–3
- 8Walker homered to right (378 feet).4–3
- 6Young doubled to left, Tena scored, Millas to third.3–3
- 6Urías homered to center (414 feet), Gorman scored.3–2
- 5Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Saggese scored, Herrera out at second, Wetherholt to third.1–2
- 1Nuñez singled to center, García Jr. scored, Abrams to third.0–2
- 1Lile grounded out to shortstop, Wood scored, García Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML STL -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 48.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- STL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 6.629th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15381st of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 145028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 7–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 7–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–6 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.